Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler odds: Early UFC 303 picks and predictions for June 29

Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler Odds

Also of note, the fight booking marks the end of the heavily contested weight-class debate. Both men most recently fought at lightweight while McGregor infamously informed Chandler the fight would be at middleweight.

Much like the other declarations from McGregor at that time — "By the time that show finishes we'll have a date" in particular aged poorly — "Notorious" wasn't exactly accurate. This fight is (for now) booked at welterweight, where McGregor has previously fought against Nate Diaz and Donald Cerrone.

Both men are/were massive lightweights — in McGregor's case at least since exiting the drug testing pool following his leg injury — so I expect they'll be fairly similar in size as they would at 155, just with a lighter weight cut.

McGregor vs. Chandler Fight Analysis

Before signing with the UFC in 2021, Chandler was the on-again, off-again Bellator lightweight champion, holding the title for three separate stints from 2011-2018.

However, UFC fans probably know him most for his power, as he's picked up both wins in the UFC via highlight-reel knockouts.

However, Chandler is an extremely well-rounded mixed martial artist. He's a former Division I All-American wrestler from Mizzou with a black belt in 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu. Those skills should serve him well against McGregor, who even at his best was a fairly one-dimensional puncher.

McGregor's new physique will likely aid his power, but I don't see it helping his grappling. Or his cardio, which has been a notorious (pun intended) problem for the explosive Irishman.

There's also plenty of justifiable concerns over McGregor's dedication to the sport at this point, given his hard-partying lifestyle and frequent appearance in the headlines for all the wrong reasons.

Chandler vs. McGregor Pick

It's been nearly eight years since Conor McGregor beat anyone other than a completely washed Donald Cerrone, yet hope springs eternal — at least in the eyes of the public.

Oddsmakers have had this fight available since well before it was made official, with the prevailing line holding McGregor as a slight favorite. Since becoming official at UFC 300, money has started to trickle in on Chandler, but he can still be had at around even money at some shops.

I'm fairly confident this line is heavily based on the star power of McGregor; Chandler should be a far heavier favorite here. Oddsmakers correctly assume that casual fans will want to bet McGregor irrespective of his price — so why offer plus money?

So, that makes taking an early bet on Chandler the smart move here. Cooler heads will eventually prevail in the markets, leading to Chandler closing at shorter odds.

While we need to weigh the likely CLV against the cost of tying up your money for two months, that calculus checks out for me. Odds are we'll have plenty of arbitrage opportunities between now and fight day, creating an opportunity to lock in a profit.

Still, I'll believe this fight is really happening when I hear Bruce Buffer making his announcements, so keep it small. We don't want to be giving interest-free loans to sportsbooks with our money tied up.

Besides, I expect we'll be able to find some live-betting opportunities on "Iron Mike" even if the prefight line falls out on us by June.

The Pick: Michael Chandler (-102 at DraftKings)