MLB best bets: Reds vs. Giants pick odds, prediction for Fri. 5/10  

Reds vs. Giants Odds

Friday, May 10, 10:15 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Cincinnati Reds

Andrew Abbott is working on a very encouraging sophomore campaign here at the big-league level. He debuted to pretty positive results a year ago, posting a 3.87 ERA in 109 1/3 innings backed by above-average expected numbers, and now at 24-years-old he's taken another step forward.

In seven starts, the lefty has lowered his concerning 9.6% walk rate from a year ago to 7.1%, and while that's come at the expense of strikeouts, he's improved his hard-hit rate dramatically and lowered his xBA to just .210 — putting him very close to the elite tier.

Abbott is a fly ball pitcher, which puts him in danger when pitching at the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, but without many well-struck balls against him, he's managed to defy the odds and pitch to contact through the air no matter where he's pitched. Now, he steps into one of the friendliest parks in baseball for fly-ball pitchers.

The Reds' offense, meanwhile, curiously doesn't produce many fly balls, but still owns a palatable .144 Isolated Power and 38.2% hard-hit rate to put them right in the middle of the league. Strikeouts have been a huge issue at 26%, but they've walked in over 9% of plate appearances to make up for it.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants infamously took weeks to finally slug their first home run in San Francisco, and now that the proverbial monkey is off their back, they've seemed to settle in a bit when playing at home, hitting 10 homers in 16 games and slashing a respectable .236/.297/.346 in that span. While still very middling marks, the club has at least erased the glaring gap in the home/road splits and looks to have flipped the script over the last two weeks in terms of where they prefer to play.

We touched on the fact that the Giants do like to put the ball in the air in the intro, ranking 12th in the league in fly ball rate. That has translated in the splits as well, considering they've hit .253 and slugged .442 against fly ball pitchers this season. They do play in one of the least-rewarding parks in baseball for balls hit in the air, but Abbott should theoretically play into their hands here.

Logan Webb, meanwhile, has continued to be one of the most extreme ground ball pitchers in the game but hasn't quite had the same aura as he had a season ago. The righty still owns a very acceptable 3.50 ERA, but his 4.73 xERA is definite cause for concern. A slight uptick in walks certainly hasn't helped his case, though the bigger story here is a .306 Expected Batting Average which has been the result of continued struggles in the exit velocity department and a big jump in line drives.

Webb's strikeout numbers have always been right around the league average, but dropping down another four points in that area has hurt him with the problems he's run into on contact, and while he's still not close to the league average in walk rate, a few extra baserunners are also putting him into a good deal of danger even if it hasn't showed in the ERA quite yet.

Reds vs. Giants

Betting Pick & Prediction

Webb's xERA was a tidy 3.63 a year ago, but you might be able to say his struggles date all the way back to 2023 when you consider he finished in the bottom 6% of the league in hard-hit rate and has only watched that number grow in 2024. He had a miserable Spring Training and around a few special outings has really struggled to pitch to contact, with five walks over the last two outings just adding to the issues.

Considering the best way to hurt the Reds is via the strikeout, I'm not convinced Webb will come up with something special here. On top of that, the Reds do own a better OPS against ground-ballers versus fly-ballers, making this a somewhat tricky matchup for the Giants right-hander.

On the flip-side, while I'm a believer in Abbott, I do think this is a spot you want to back the Giants offense in with their recent run of form at home and their preference to hit against fly-ball pitchers. San Francisco has a very acceptable 96 wRC+ against southpaws this season and should help us get to the total.

Oddsmakers are expecting a pitcher's duel at a pitcher's park between two guys who have been effective this season, but I think you can poke plenty of holes in both of these guys' seasons when you consider how both of these guys like to pitch. I like the over here to eight runs.

Pick: Over 7.5 (+102)

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