MLB best bets: 5 expert predictions and picks for Friday 4/26 

Dodgers vs. Blue Jays

Friday, April 26, 7:07 p.m. ET, MLB.tv
Dodgers -122 (DraftKings)

By Brad Cunningham

Gavin Stone has been a little unlucky to begin the season, with an ERA over six when his expected ERA is sitting at 3.98. He's been pretty dominant with his changeup (his main pitch), as it's allowing a .194 xwOBA to begin the season.

Even though his Stuff+ numbers are below the MLB average, he's doing a fantastic job keeping the ball off opposing hitters' sweet spot, as he's in the 90th percentile for barrel rate allowed.

He also has a pretty drastic split advantage, as he really struggles versus lefties but is elite against righties. A lot of that has to do with a sinker that has 19 inches of total break that he uses to throw in on righties.

Against right-handed batters this season, he's only allowing a .229 wOBA, but he's getting absolutely smoked by lefties. At best, the Blue Jays can put four left-handed bats into their lineup, and they're all at the bottom of the order.

In fact, for the season, the Blue Jays have been pretty average against right-handed pitching, as they only have a 99 wRC+.

Chris Bassitt is a negative regression candidate, as his expected ERA is north of six to begin the season. The problem with Bassitt is he's not getting a high number of whiffs and getting hitters to chase balls outside of the zone.

He has very average stuff overall (100 Stuff+ rating), so if he has to live in the zone, he's going to get hit.

He's a big time sinker-ball pitcher, throwing it 41.3% of the time in 2024. Opposing hitters have gotten to it too, as he's allowing a .412 xwOBA on it.

If he's going to throw his sinker that often to the Dodgers' lineup, he's going to get lit up. Since the beginning of 2023, the Dodgers have a .413 xwOBA against right-handed sinkers, which is 27 points higher than the next closest team.

I have the Dodgers projected at -151, so I like the value on them at -122.

Pick: Dodgers -122

Cubs vs. Red Sox

Friday, April 26, 7:10 p.m. ET, NESN
Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 Strikeouts (BetMGM)

By John Feltman

It's bound to be a terrific pitching matchup tonight at Fenway Park as the Chicago Cubs head to Boston. It'll be Shota Imanaga on the mound for the Cubs and Kutter Crawford for the Sox.

Both of these starters are sporting ERA's under 1.00, but I specifically want to target Imanaga tonight. He's been a bit fortunate to begin the year, but his arsenal is very much for real.

The Sox have struck out the most against left-handed pitchers in the last 10 games (44 times), and are second-to-last in the majors in strikeouts per game. There's a reason Imanaga's strikeout prop is juiced to -130, but I'm more than happy to grab it at the 5.5 number.

It's possible Imanaga's negative regression starts to kick in at the hitter-friendly Fenway, but his strikeouts shouldn't be impacted whatsoever. The Sox's best hitters are all left-handed — especially with Tyler O'Neill hitting the IL — so I expect him to clear this easily.

Pick: Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Cardinals vs. Mets

Friday, April 26, 7:10 p.m. ET, Apple TV+
Miles Mikolas Under 3.5 Strikeouts (DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

St. Louis hands the ball to right-hander Miles Mikolas on Friday, and he should be a good fade candidate. The veteran continues to decline as his career winds down, and he's off to his worst start yet with a 1-3 record, 6.49 ERA and 1.52 WHIP through his first five outings of 2024.

His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, as he ranks in the 15th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and hard-hit percentage.

Mikolas also ranks in the fifth percentile in whiff percentage and 20th percentile in strikeout percentage. That's how we'll fade the right-hander in this matchup against New York.

Speaking of the Mets, they rank 10th in the league in strikeout percentage when facing right-handed pitching this season. Looking at Friday's projected starting lineup, eight of New York's nine hitters boast a strikeout percentage south of 22% this year.

Expect another quick outing from Mikolas and for him to go under 3.5 strikeouts for the third time in four starts.

Nationals vs. Marlins

Friday, April 26, 7:10 p.m. ET, MLB.tv
Marlins -1.5 (FanDuel)

By John Feltman

The Marlins are off to a horrific 6-20 start, but tonight, they draw a very favorable matchup against the Washington Nationals at home.

Jesus Luzardo gets the ball for the Fish, and he's been a notoriously better pitcher at home than on the road.

Last season, Luzardo finished the season with a 2.99 ERA and 128 Ks in 108 innings pitched at home.

The current Nats hitters have also struggled against Luzardo in their careers, hitting .203 as a team in 54 at-bats.

Miami's offense has been awful to begin the season, as it's nearly last in batting average and runs scored. But it gets to face Trevor Williams, who it's seen a lot of in the past.

The overall numbers against Williams are nothing to write home about, but he continues to give up a ton of contact. It might be asking a lot from the current state of the Marlins' lineup to win a game by two runs or more, but it's truly the bottom of the market for them.

Luzardo was much better in his last start, and the metrics suggest he's bound for some good fortune moving forward.

I'll take my chances backing Luzardo and the Fish when mostly everyone is afraid to back them right now.

Pick: Marlins -1.5

Twins vs. Angels

Friday, April 26, 9:38 p.m. ET, MLB.tv
Los Angeles Angels F5 -106 (FanDuel)

By John Feltman

Patrick Sandoval gets the ball for the Halos and is looking to redeem himself after a terrible start his last time out. Sandoval was roughed up for seven runs, six hits and five walks over four innings against the Reds.

Besides the lingering walk issues, Sandoval is actually limiting a lot of hard contact and is getting less contact from outside of the zone than in years past. He holds a 27.7 CSW% and a 4.7% barrel rate.

The wind is projected to be blowing out to dead center, which is terrific news for the Halos' hitters. With Anthony Rendon on the shelf, the Angels' lineup has entered skeleton mode and we haven't even reached the month of May.

But they draw a matchup against Bailey Ober, who allows a ton of fly balls. With the wind blowing out, it won't affect Sandoval as much due to his ability to generate ground balls and weak contact.

The only hitter on the Halos with experience against Ober is Aaron Hicks, who's 0-2 lifetime against him. Ober has always been overrated in my eyes, as he doesn't possess elite strikeout stuff and gives up far too much hard contact for my liking (14.8% barrel rate thus far).

I don't trust the Halos' pen worth a lick, so I feel much more comfortable that they'll be able to jump out to an early lead in the first five innings.

Pick: Los Angeles Angels F5 -106